The Gauteng residential property market is sending apparently contradictory signals. Fewer properties are being advertised, yet buyers have become more selective and evidence of softer transaction activity is emerging. For Cameron Jansen, General Manager of LWP Properties, the explanation lies partly in the difference between when a sale is negotiated and when it finally appears in registration figures. In a recent discussion with Cameron Jansen - General Manager at LWP Properties, we discussed what is happening in the local market.
“We need to be careful not to judge today’s market purely by what registered last month,” says Jansen. “Those transactions may have been agreed several months earlier. The experience of buyers and sellers on the ground can change well before the registration figures catch up.”
Fewer homes advertised — and not just in Gauteng
Property24’s Gauteng property-trends data shows advertised stock falling from 187,770 in October 2025 to 156,869 in September 2026 — a decline of approximately 16.5%. The fall became more pronounced towards the end of the period. But Gauteng is not an exception. Over the same interval, Property24 recorded declines of approximately 14.7% in the Western Cape and 10.5% in KwaZulu-Natal. National advertised stock fell by about 14%. The reductions point to a widespread contraction in properties being marketed, although the underlying causes and market conditions differ from province to province.
Property24 advertised stock, indexed to October 2025 = 100. The figures compare monthly observations eleven months apart, not September-on-September annual changes. Portal stock is not the same as the physical supply of homes.
Jansen cautions against interpreting those figures as proof that eager buyers are competing for a dwindling supply of houses. “There may be fewer homes for buyers to choose from, but that does not automatically mean more buyers are ready or able to purchase. Some homeowners could also be delaying their decision to sell, particularly if they are uncertain about their next move.”
Why registrations can lag behind the real market
The timing of transactions is central to Jansen’s assessment. Lightstone notes that residential sales typically appear in Deeds Office records roughly three months after an offer to purchase is signed. Registrations in early 2026 can therefore include sales negotiated towards the end of 2025, while transactions agreed in Q2 and Q3 may only register later. “My impression is that the first quarter was reasonably positive, but pressure built during the second and third quarters,” he says. “If we only look at registered sales, we risk recognising that shift a quarter too late.”
The available research is consistent with that interpretation. BetterBond reported a 9.7% quarter-on-quarter rise in home-loan applications in Q1 2026, followed by softer application activity in Q2 and little renewed growth during July and August. FNB’s national Estate Agent Surveys showed satisfaction with prevailing conditions falling from 77% in Q1 to 59% in Q2, while its estimate of first-time buyers’ share of activity declined from 40% in Q1 to 26% in Q3. The RE/MAX National Housing Report also identified an approximately 8% year-on-year decline in registered residential transaction volumes nationally in Q2. Gauteng was comparatively resilient, however, and the national decline should not be presented as a Gauteng-specific result.
For Jansen, the combined evidence points to a market losing momentum rather than one experiencing an across-the-board collapse. “There are still buyers and there are still successful sales. But financing costs, affordability and confidence are influencing decisions much more strongly.”
Less stock does not guarantee a better selling price
The Western Cape provides a useful contrast. Stronger demand and quicker selling times in parts of that province suggest that reduced advertised stock can coincide with buyer competition. Gauteng’s picture is different: price sensitivity remains a significant feature of the market. FNB’s September survey indicated that roughly 75% of residential transactions nationally were concluded below asking price, with an average discount of approximately 8%. Lightstone’s Johannesburg research also found large differences in selling times between price brackets.
“A seller might see fewer competing properties and assume they can increase their asking price,” Jansen says. “But buyers are still comparing value very carefully. Reduced stock does not rescue an overpriced property.”
What this means for homeowners, sellers and buyers
For homeowners considering selling, Jansen sees a potential opportunity — provided they understand their immediate local market. “If there are fewer competing properties in your estate or suburb, that can work in your favour. But the decision needs to be based on current buyer activity and a realistic market assessment, not simply a provincial headline.” For sellers already on the market, the warning is more immediate. Declining enquiries, fewer viewings and an extended advertising period should prompt a review of price, presentation and competing stock. “A property needs to remain competitive, not merely remain advertised,” Jansen says. Buyers, meanwhile, may find negotiating opportunities where sellers have become more motivated, although well-priced homes in sought-after locations can still attract strong interest. Reliable bond prequalification, the full cost of ownership and comparable recent sales remain essential.
What should we watch next?
As Gauteng moves through the final quarter of 2026, Jansen believes the most useful indicators will be newly concluded sales, buyer enquiries and mortgage applications, alongside the stock of properties actually available in each local area. Registration data will remain important, but it cannot provide a complete real-time picture.
“I would not describe Gauteng as a market that is simply getting stronger or weaker,” he concludes. “Fewer listings can create opportunities for sellers, while slower transaction activity can give buyers more negotiating room. Both can be true at the same time. What matters is understanding the conditions affecting the particular property and suburb.”
That is the approach LWP Properties advocates: decisions informed by current local evidence rather than broad headlines.
LWP Properties — Beyond the Sale.
Research sources
• Property24 provincial and national property-trends pages (October 2025–September 2026)
• Lightstone — A Tale of Two Cities (August 2026)
• BetterBond — Monthly Property Briefs (Q1–Q3 2026)
• FNB — Estate Agent Surveys (Q1–Q3 2026)
• RE/MAX National Housing Report
